Understand your risks.
BUILDING DEFENSIBLE RISK DECISIONS FOR FINANCE
Proven methods for decisions under deep uncertainty.
FIND BREAKING POINTS
Thousands of futures, mapped to show exactly where your strategy fails.
MAP THE TRANSMISSION
Map how a flood, drought or heatwave in one region travels through supply chains, commodity prices and counterparties to a balance sheet
INFORM THE DECISION
Test plans and strategies against the policy, technology and market futures that would derail them, and set out where a plan should adapt.
Our approach reflects the PRA’s expectations under SS5/25 for scenario analysis that captures deep uncertainty.
SUPERVISORY READINESS
Clarity where the models run out.
We live in an increasingly complex world.
Yet many decisions are still based on the assumption that with sufficient data, modelling, and analysis, uncertainty can be reduced until a clear answer emerges.
Our mission is to help financial institutions understand climate risk as it is: non-linear, interconnected and deeply uncertain.
By testing strategies across thousands of futures, we show where a strategy holds, where it breaks, and what would need to change.
Addressing Deep Climate Uncertainty in Economics and Finance
A primer for finance professionals on climate risk under deep uncertainty: why precise probabilities can mislead, and how institutions can test strategy against futures that conventional models leave out.
How an engagement works
We review your existing scenarios, models and transition plan to find where precision outruns the evidence. The review sets out which assumptions drive your results and how they hold up against SS5/25.
DIAGNOSE
1
We build a scenario framework across thousands of futures and runs reverse stress tests on your key decisions. Each strategy is mapped to the conditions where it holds and the conditions where it fails.
Build
2
We set up the triggers and governance in Nebula so your team can rerun the analysis as conditions change. The risk committee works from a live tool, with Foresight support as needed.